6 Aug · 01:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1591
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1597
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruzicka🌟Barton covers set handicap as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H19-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.