5 Aug · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1486
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pagac
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1496
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H34-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.