5 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jiri Dedek
ELO 1532
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dedek
PF
🇨🇿Pavel Fojt
ELO 1464
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Dedek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H35-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.