5 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DO
🇨🇿Dominik Oborny
ELO 1535
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oborny
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Levicky
ELO 1520
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Oborny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H39-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.