6 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1547
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pikous
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1603
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Pikous
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H31-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.