5 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1531
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1600
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chalupa🌟Simecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (92)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+69
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.