6 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇨🇿Karel Kapras
ELO 1487
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobisek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1527
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Kapras stays under total as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Sobisek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.