6 Aug · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Marek Volny
ELO 1538
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Volny
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Levicky
ELO 1522
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Volny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H16-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.