6 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1390
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Madle
JP
🇨🇿Jan Potensky
ELO 1350
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Potensky stays under total as underdog 62% (66)
Fair odds · Madle
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H20-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.