6 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1528
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kysely
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kysely
ELO 1567
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Machander covers set handicap as underdog 65% (81)
Fair odds · Kysely
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.