6 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1571
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cermak
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1526
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 64% (22)
Fair odds · Cermak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.