6 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1530
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Petrek
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Petrek
ELO 1564
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Walek goes over total as underdog 67% (64)
Fair odds · Petrek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.