6 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AV
🇨🇿Alexandr Virag
ELO 1458
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Virag
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kaspar
ELO 1413
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Kaspar stays under total as underdog 86% (14)
Fair odds · Virag
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.