7 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1597
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hofman
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1561
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sychra🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (74)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H22-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.