8 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1566
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wagner
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1586
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Sychra covers set handicap as underdog 64% (190)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.