7 Aug · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1548
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Darin
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1529
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Stolfa covers set handicap as underdog 62% (40)
Fair odds · Darin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.