7 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1548
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Darin
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1522
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Darin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.