8 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1479
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Regner
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1483
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Regner
Fair odds · Regner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H12-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.