8 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1701
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mares
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zeman
ELO 1668
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zeman🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (153)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H23-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.