8 Aug · 05:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chlebecek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1498
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Chlebecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (37)
Fair odds · Chlebecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.