10 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1357
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chalupnicek
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1373
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Chalupnicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (44)
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.