10 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1631
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sebera
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1551
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (153)
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+80
H2H28-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.