10 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1551
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wagner
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1623
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (153)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.