10 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1631
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sebera
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1623
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 69% (45)
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.