10 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pleskot
ELO 1392
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pleskot
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1373
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pleskot
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.