11 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1668
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Paril
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1598
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 67% (204)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H21-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.