11 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Matej Levicky
ELO 1433
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Levicky
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kaspar
ELO 1417
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Kaspar stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Levicky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.