11 Aug · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Plachy
ELO 1486
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pavelka
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1580
FormLWWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+94
H2H39-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-38)