11 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1585
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Paril
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1668
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Navedla covers set handicap as underdog 70% (164)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+83
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.