11 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AV
🇨🇿Alexandr Virag
ELO 1442
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Virag
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kaspar
ELO 1417
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaspar🌟Kaspar stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Virag
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.