11 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stary
ELO 1275
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stary
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1205
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Stary rarely covers set handicap as favourite 8% (12)
Fair odds · Stary
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 36% · 2.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.