11 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1517
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Walek
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1538
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Byrtus🌟Walek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (77)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H9-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.