11 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kaspar
ELO 1417
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zientek
ZZ
🇨🇿Zbynek Zientek
ELO 1472
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaspar🌟Kaspar stays under total as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Zientek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.