11 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1506
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Janata
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1532
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Janata rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (50)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.