12 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1592
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Navedla
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1598
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 66% (210)
Fair odds · Navedla
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H12-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.