12 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Milkov
ELO 1471
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Milkov
VC
🇨🇿Vojtech Cerny
ELO 1422
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Cerny rarely covers set handicap as underdog 26% (23)
Fair odds · Milkov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.