12 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1234
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Serak
PS
🇨🇿Petr Serak
ELO 1265
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Serak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (17)
Fair odds · Serak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H10-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.