12 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1634
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zika
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1592
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Zika rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (128)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H38-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.