12 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1638
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polasek
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1592
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 66% (210)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H34-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.