12 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1600
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1709
FormWWLLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (159)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+109
H2H23-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-15)