12 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stach
ELO 1479
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stach
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Milkov
ELO 1471
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Stach
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.