12 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FW
🇨🇿Filip Wolf
ELO 1606
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wolf
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1580
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kratochvil🌟Kratochvil covers set handicap as underdog 64% (166)
Fair odds · Wolf
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.