12 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1709
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mares
FW
🇨🇿Filip Wolf
ELO 1606
FormLLLWW
55%
45%
🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (159)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+103
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)