13 Aug · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FW
🇨🇿Filip Wolf
ELO 1598
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1706
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (169)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+108
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)