13 Aug · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1570
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pavelka
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1541
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🌟Stolfa covers set handicap as underdog 62% (48)
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.