13 Aug · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1533
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pavelka
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1570
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H20-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.