13 Aug · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1577
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tomica
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1580
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tomica🌟Tomica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (25)
Fair odds · Tomica
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.