13 Aug · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1706
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bradach
PB
🇨🇿Petr Bradach
ELO 1757
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Bradach
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 36% · 2.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H5-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.