12 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vondrak
ELO 1579
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vondrak
AB
🇨🇿Adam Brazda
ELO 1561
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brazda🌟Vondrak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (80)
Fair odds · Vondrak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.