13 Aug · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1587
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Walek
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1524
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Byrtus🌟Walek goes over total as favourite 63% (84)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H11-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.